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భూమిపై ఉండే జీవకోటికి ముప్పు రాబోతోందా? అంటే అవుననే అంటోంది నాసా సంస్థ. ప్రస్తుతం భూమిపై బొగ్గుపులుసు వాయువులు పెద్ద ఎత్తున పేరుకుపోతున్నాయి. పర్యావారణానికి భారీ నష్టం సంభవిస్తోంది. సాతుల్యత దెబ్బతింటే ఇబ్బందులు తప్పవని నిపుణులు హెచ్చరిస్తున్నారు. అయితే, అంతరిక్ష పరిశోధన సంస్థ నాసా కొన్ని కీలక వ్యాఖ్యలు చేసింది. 2068 లో భూమిపై ఉండే జీవకోటి అంతం అవుతుందని చెప్పింది. ఆపోహిస్ 99942 అనే ఉల్క భూమివైపు దూసుకొస్తోందని నాసా చెప్పింది. 2004లో ఈ ఉల్కను నాసా గుర్తించింది. 2029లో ఈ ఆపోహిస్ 99942 భూ కక్షకు 32 వేల కిలోమీటర్ల నుంచి వెళ్తుందని, 2068లో ఈ ఆపోహిస్ ఉల్క భూమిని ఢీకొట్టే అవకాశం ఉందని, భూమిని డీకొడితే జీవకోటి అంతం అవుతుందని నాసా సంస్థ తెలియజేసింది.
This Asteroid Could Wipe All of Humanity in 2068 and You Thought 2020 Was Bad.
Asteroid 'Apophis-99942' is estimated to be a little shy of 400-metres and NASA has classified it as a ‘near-Earth asteroid.’ And though claims of the world ending in 2012 were fuelled by misinformation regarding Mayan calendars, this information is backed by scientists.
If an object is named after The Egyptian god of Chaos and Evil, one can expect it to have either menacing origins or malicious ends.
The asteroid named Apophis-99942 after the Chaos god is the latter. It is said that it’s racing toward our planet and could collide with us by 2068. The apocalyptic prediction isn’t made by a prophecy or any sci-fi text; it’s actual science.
It is estimated to be a little shy of 400-metres and NASA has classified it as a ‘near-Earth asteroid.’ And though claims of the world ending in 2012 were fuelled by misinformation regarding Mayan calendars, this information is backed by scientists.
However, science-related predictions can also be inaccurate, as an observation made by a human which leads to an inference can also be misguided.
It happened in 2004 when the same asteroid caused quite a bit of alarm in certain circles when it was first discovered by David J. Tholen and team. With help of various observatories and notable Subaru telescope, astronomers gathered that it could fly by earth by 2029.
Latest data reveals that the asteroid went through what is known as Yarkovsky acceleration. It’s a minuscule force acted upon celestial moving bodies by sunlight. So, to summarise, sunlight, the force we cannot feel, will be pushing this giant boulder toward our planet set on a course to crash.
Even though the 2029 year may not end in a collision, the asteroid will still be passing by quite close. Earlier, the chances of a collision were estimated at 2.7% probability. They are ‘pretty sure’ the 2029 fly-by will just be a spectacle to behold (it would be visible from Earth) and not a cause for concern. According to NASA, it will fly over the Atlantic ocean and cross the United States as well.
But the 2017 data and all the other factors included put a chance of collision in the year 2068 at 1 in 150. This is considered more accurate than previous predictions because more time, data, and refining have gone onto arriving at this number.
While there is always a chance of error, of prediction date or distance or force; but if there is no error and the data is accurate, then it can be said with certainty that Apophis will be doing more than simply flying by. It might actually collide in 2068, at a 1 in 150 ratio.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
www.earthsky.org Story
Astronomers at the University of Hawaii issued a statement on October 26, 2020, revealing critical new findings linked to the large near-Earth asteroid 99942 Apophis, which is expected to pass close to Earth in 2029, 2036 and again in 2068. Dave Tholen and collaborators announced they have now detected a Yarkovsky acceleration on asteroid Apophis, arising from a minuscule push imparted by sunlight. This force is particularly important for asteroid Apophis, the scientists in Hawaii said, because it relates to the possibility of an Earth impact in 2068.
The 2021 lunar calendars are here! Order yours before they’re gone. Makes a great gift!
Tholen and colleagues used the 323-inch (8.2-meter) Subaru Telescope at Mauna Kea, Hawaii, to make the new observations. Their work suggests that the huge space rock – whose estimated diameter is between 1,115 and 1,214 feet (340 to 370 meters) – is drifting more than 500 feet (about 170 meters) per year from its expected position in its orbit.
The team will present their research later this week at a virtual conference held under the auspices of the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, Texas. Referring to the encounter in 2029, the conference is called Apophis T-9 Years.
Tholen – who has been tracking the motion of Apophis in the sky since he and his colleagues discovered it from Kitt Peak National Observatory near Tucson, Arizona, in on June 19, 2004 – commented in the statement:
We have known for some time that an impact with Earth is not possible during the 2029 close approach.
The new observations we obtained with the Subaru telescope earlier this year were good enough to reveal the Yarkovsky acceleration of Apophis, and they show that the asteroid is drifting away from a purely gravitational orbit by about 170 meters [about 500 feet] per year, which is enough to keep the 2068 impact scenario in play.
These observations aren’t easy to obtain and analyze, by the way. Factors such as the asteroid’s distance at the time of observation, its composition, its shape and its surface features all affect the outcome.
But astronomers are pushing to understand the orbit of asteroid Apophis because of its close sweeps past our planet in this century and beyond.
Read more about the Yarkovsky effect: Pushing asteroids around with sunlight
Dark background with white streaks and tiny white dot with a circle around it.
Because of the distance, asteroid 99942 Apophis appears as a small dot in this telescope image. Image via University of Hawaii.
In recent years, astronomers have been able to find and track tiny asteroids sweeping very near the Earth. For example, on September 24, 2020, asteroid 2020 SW swept even closer to us than our meteorological and television satellites as well as other geostationary satellites, which orbit our planet at some 22,300 miles (35,900 km) from Earth’s surface. Asteroid 2020 SW came within about 7% of the Earth-moon distance. But asteroid 2020 SW is estimated to be only about 14 to 32 feet (about 4.5 to 10 meters) in diameter. That’s very small in contrast to asteroid Apophis.
Asteroid Apophis will have an extremely close encounter with Earth on April 13, 2029. At its closest in 2029, Apophis will sweep just 23,441 miles (37,725 km) from our planet, or about 10% of the Earth-moon distance. That’s very close for a space rock over 1,115 ft (340 meters) across! Lance Benner of NASA/JPL commented:
This will be the closest approach by something this large currently known. (In 2029) Apophis will be visible to the unaided eye for several hours, and Earth tides will probably change its spin state.
Earth inside ring of very many dots, and the path of the asteroid as a yellow line passing close to the dots.
This animation shows the distance between the Apophis asteroid and Earth at the time of the asteroid’s closest approach in 2029. The blue dots are manmade satellites orbiting our planet, and the pink represents the International Space Station. Image via NASA/ JPL-Caltech.
Although the probability of an impact from asteroid Apophis for 2029 and 2036 has been ruled out, the new findings suggest that there might be a very small chance of impact in April 2068. Previous calculations made in 2016 had all but ruled out the probability of an impact on 2068. The chance of an impact was seen in 2016 as vanishingly small, at just 1 in 150,000 odds of impact, or a 99.99933% chance the asteroid would miss the Earth. The new findings might slightly change these numbers again, as new calculations are made using both the recent data and new observations that will be made very soon.
Astronomers will know well before 2068 if there is any chance of an impact from Apophis. And opportunities for observing asteroid Apophis are coming up again soon.
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